NYSS - An Abortion of New York Sports Journalism
Does Eli Play Worse in Bad Weather?
The weather report for the NFC Championship game in Green Bay calls for snow and icy-cold temperatures.
It could be dangerously cold; the long-range forecast calls for single-digit temperatures. Damn.
There has been a lot of talk recently that questions whether Eli has the bazungas to play a good football game in this type of setting; i.e. really brick. So because ESPN only wants to talk about a potential Super Bowl match up between Farve and Brady, I took it upon myself to tabulate the stats and come up with a reasonable projection on how he will preform this Sunday.
Weather.com says that the most favorable weather conditions for the New York Giants are games with winds 15 mph or less, without precipitation and temperatures between 60 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit. But I would contend that most teams are better in these types of conditions, not just the Giants.
Here are the stats that should indicate whether or not Eli will have a good game or bad game. Any game that is under 50 degrees or precipitation will be in bold and determine if it is "bad weather" or not.
Based on the two upper tables here, Eli's stats are drastically worse in bad weather category. But Isn't every quarterback? Maybe so, but I cant take another two hours during work to do more stat research. My boss has already walked by my desk to see a 18x6 table describing Eli's performance in inclement weather. Let's just say that he isn't exactly pleased.
Why is his performance so bad while other QB's (Farve) are good? Perhaps because he's a little baby? Possibly. But more likely it is because his already questionable throwing accuracy is put to the test when he has to grip a freezing ball with freezing a hand, making his throws go even further and higher from his intended target. This influences the other teams defensive coordinators strategy very much. Another QB that throws harder and more accurate won't have his balls affected by the wind as much nor will they rely on their grip. This is just a theory of course.
The bottom line is that the publics conception that Eli Manning is significantly worse in this type of weather is completely true, But as the graphs also tell you, he can have a great game in bad weather (New England week 17) or a horrific game in favorable weather (GB week 2). The fact that he has played well over the last 3 weeks is probably more telling than the whole bad weather thing. One thing for certain, Not even Eli knows what the fuck is going to happen.
It could be dangerously cold; the long-range forecast calls for single-digit temperatures. Damn.
There has been a lot of talk recently that questions whether Eli has the bazungas to play a good football game in this type of setting; i.e. really brick. So because ESPN only wants to talk about a potential Super Bowl match up between Farve and Brady, I took it upon myself to tabulate the stats and come up with a reasonable projection on how he will preform this Sunday.Weather.com says that the most favorable weather conditions for the New York Giants are games with winds 15 mph or less, without precipitation and temperatures between 60 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit. But I would contend that most teams are better in these types of conditions, not just the Giants.
Here are the stats that should indicate whether or not Eli will have a good game or bad game. Any game that is under 50 degrees or precipitation will be in bold and determine if it is "bad weather" or not.
Game/Result/Score |
Comp% |
Td |
INT |
QB% |
Weather |
1 @DAL L 45-35 |
68.3 |
4 |
1 |
113.1 |
78 |
2 GNB L 35-13 |
55.2 |
1 |
1 |
75.5 |
64 |
3 @WAS W 24-17 |
52.0 |
2 |
1 |
86.4 |
81 |
4 PHI W 16-3 |
53.8 |
1 |
1 |
65.4 |
67 |
5 NYJ W 35-24 |
52.0 |
2 |
1 |
86.4 |
81 |
6 @ATL W 31-10 |
69.2 |
2 |
2 |
87.9 |
dome |
7 SF W 33-15 |
58.1 |
2 |
1 |
78.2 |
69 |
8 @MIA W 13-10 |
36.4 |
0 |
0 |
44.9 |
59 rainy |
10 DAL L 31-20 |
67.6 |
1 |
2 |
72.7 |
47 |
11 @DET W 16-10 |
71.8 |
1 |
0 |
100.7 |
dome |
12 MIN L 41-17 |
42.9 |
1 |
4 |
33.8 |
46 |
13 @CHI W 21-16 |
59.3 |
1 |
2 |
63.0 |
46 windy |
14 @PHI W 16-13 |
54.8 |
1 |
0 |
88.0 |
36 |
15 WAS L 22-10 |
34 |
1 |
0 |
51.1 |
36 real windy |
16 @BUF W 38-21 |
46.7 |
0 |
2 |
32.2 |
52 real windy, snowy |
17 NE L 38-35 |
68.8 |
4 |
1 |
118.6 |
44 |
WC @TB W 24-14 |
74.1 |
2 |
0 |
117.1 |
70 |
DIV@DAL W 21-17 |
66.7 |
2 |
0 |
132.4 |
59 |
Eli Average Stats in Bad Weather
Comp% |
TD |
INT |
QB% |
Weather |
51.2 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
63.0 |
49 Crappy |
Eli Average Stats in Good Weather
Comp% |
TD |
INT |
QB% |
Weather |
62.1 |
1.9 |
.08 |
94.3 |
57 Pretty |
Based on the two upper tables here, Eli's stats are drastically worse in bad weather category. But Isn't every quarterback? Maybe so, but I cant take another two hours during work to do more stat research. My boss has already walked by my desk to see a 18x6 table describing Eli's performance in inclement weather. Let's just say that he isn't exactly pleased.
Why is his performance so bad while other QB's (Farve) are good? Perhaps because he's a little baby? Possibly. But more likely it is because his already questionable throwing accuracy is put to the test when he has to grip a freezing ball with freezing a hand, making his throws go even further and higher from his intended target. This influences the other teams defensive coordinators strategy very much. Another QB that throws harder and more accurate won't have his balls affected by the wind as much nor will they rely on their grip. This is just a theory of course.
The bottom line is that the publics conception that Eli Manning is significantly worse in this type of weather is completely true, But as the graphs also tell you, he can have a great game in bad weather (New England week 17) or a horrific game in favorable weather (GB week 2). The fact that he has played well over the last 3 weeks is probably more telling than the whole bad weather thing. One thing for certain, Not even Eli knows what the fuck is going to happen.
Views: 12
Comment
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Comment by NYsportsGUY on January 17, 2008 at 12:06am
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Bubbs the last time anyone played a football game in that weather was last week against the Seahawks. I think the weather will affect Eli in a negative way, thats all. I still give the Giants a decent chance to win.
I would also see the Pack having an advantage on the d line against the Giants O line, but not by much....Kampman is a beast
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Comment by Bubba on January 16, 2008 at 10:03pm -
Last time I checked, the Packers have to play in the same weather as us and when was the last time anyone on that squad has even played a football game at home this late in the year????? Favre will be on his game of course but I don't think any other matchup would give them a considerable advantage
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To decide what was considered bad weather and what wasn't; I concluded that anything under 50 degrees and/or had precipitation and/or extremely windy (redskins game?) was "bad weather" and of course he didn't get any help from Toomer in that game. Whether or not a drop pass is the qb or wr fault doesn''t matter cause it hurts the qb's stats
haha I forgot about the SI cover jinx though, if anyone is immune to that it prob is Farve...lol
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Comment by Jimmy Russotto on January 16, 2008 at 5:32pm -
Geez, I wish I had Bubba's faith(if not Eli's bazungas). I really like Eli at qb (did ya see the Accorsi article in the Ledger this morning?) but really, the only REALLY bad weather was Buffalo; even the Vikings game wasn't ALL that bad. The GOOD news is that the TEAM played GREAT vs Buffalo, and there were what? 9 friggin DROPS? Eli wasn't really that bad. Add to that the fact that the Pack was great when it was cold and SLIPPERY. It won't be slick on Sunday. The BAD news is Favre is friggin' GREAT in bad weather and even the SI cover jinx doesn't touch Brett. And then there's all those secondary injuries...Giants'll win if they can pressure Favre into throwing INT after INT, which he CAN do on occasion.
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Comment by Bubba on January 15, 2008 at 8:20pm
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If you ask me all of those stats are irrelevant because we are clearly looking at a different Eli Manning. This team honestly believes they can beat anyone in the league and they are actually starting to play like it. I don't care if they play this game under water, we are going to get Elis best. It took a while but the light has finally come on for young #10
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