Yankees 2010 Season Preview - Starting Rotation

My last memory of the 2009 MLB season is walking down a Manhattan street hearing Alica Keys screaming "The streets will make you feel brand new, the light will inspire you, lets hear it for New York..." This song was simultaneously being played in every bar in New York City after the Yankees won #27. People can talk all they want about how the Yankees bought a championship but the bottom line is it was a good team that performed at a level different then any team it encountered. They did this because they have more talent and were more healthy. Basically the opposite of the Mets 2009 season.

Perhaps the most effective way to determine a players true value to an organization is to look at the geeky baseball statistic called VORP. For pitchers, VORP is defined as the number of runs a pitcher surrenders below what a replacement level pitcher would have given up in the same number of innings. For simplicity sake, VORP shows how much more effective a player is over a scrub you can just plug in at anytime. Also known as "Kei Igawa"

I listed VORP for each projected member of the starting rotation.I used this, other supporting stats, and general snarky-ness to determine a projected 2010 stat line.

CC Sabathia

2009 VORP: 55.3

Better or worse than last year? Worse. Over the last three seasons, including the playoffs, no pitcher in the majors has thrown as many innings, 775 to be exact. I’m aware that a horse is a horse of course of course but CC could feel less inclined to give it his all every time he takes the mound knowing that his team is strong enough to get into the playoffs anyway. Key stats trending negatively are walks given up per 9 innings and WHIP

Projected 2010 Stat Line: ERA- 3.90 WHIP-1.60 Wins-16 K’s-189

Secret Vice: Wasting money on Knicks season tickets

Javier Vasquez

2009 VORP: 58.8

Better or worse than last year? Better. After going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA in 32 starts for the National League Braves last year, American League "homer's" may think that a switch to the AL could prove to be even more disastrous than his first reign in pinstripes. Vazquez's strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.41) and strikeouts per nine innings (9.8) could play well in a hitter’s park - especially if the guys on your team are the best in baseball.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: ERA-3.10 WHIP- 1.12 Wins-18 K’s-252

Secret Vice: To avoid being "center of attention"

AJ Burnett

2009 VORP: 37.1

Better or worse than last year? Worse. Although I believe that when the Yankees need a win they can put AJ on the mound and be confident he will pitch well for them, you can’t be confident that he will do this over the length of a season. He’s never proved it or shown flashes that he will prove it. Last year he had career highs in Walks and wild pitches and also a higher ERA and WHIP then his career averages. Recent news that he is working on his changeup only augments his stat projection and makes me think his walks will increase again.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: ERA-4.20 WHIP-1.52 Wins- 12 K’s-201

Secret Vice: Tramp Stamps

Andy Pettitte

2009 VORP: 26.8

Better or worse than last year? Better. You thought that I would say worse didn’t you? Nope, I think that Andy will be even better knowing that he had a job from the get as opposed to last year dilly dallying around the idea of retirement. Elbow issues and just general oldness pose risk but as long as he can keep it together, he should add to his already illustrious postseason resume.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: ERA- 4.15 WHIP-1.40 Wins- 15 K’s-159

Secret Vice: Quick recovery's

Phil Hughes

2009 VORP: 25.6 (Joba 9.0)

Better or worse than last year? Even though Girardi claims that the Yankees 5th rotation up for grabs I’m going to predict Hughes to win the job. The reason why is the VORP number Phillip has compared to his main competition in addition to not being blind when watching him actually pitch. Stamina and confidence are the keys to making a successful transition from set up man to starter. I believe the confidence is there after putting up a 3.03 ERA in 86 innings pitched last year.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: (155 Innings pitched) ERA- 3.40 WHIP- 1.22 Wins-13 K’s- 180

Secret Vice: Tin Man from Wizard of Oz


Coming in a few days once people leave me alone at work for a few hours - 2010 Yankee Position Players Preview