Yankees 2010 Season Preview - Outfield and DH

Writing the Yankees pitching preview was fun and while people emailed or tweeted me to say they liked it, I would have preferred some page-view-building comments instead. Clearly I should intend on keeping my full time job because I DO IT FOR THE LOVE OF BLOGGING! Not the money or prestigious internet fame that has flowed to me since I started NYSS like water from a elementary school water fountain.

The main difference with the defending World Series Champs from this year to last, is their drastically different outfield (and DH spot) which as a whole should be leaps and bounds better defensively. Although equipped with more speed and arm strength, it will be more difficult to equal Johnny Damon's and Hideki Matsui's late-inning clutchness.

Perhaps the most effective way to determine a players true value to an organization is to look at the geeky baseball statistic called VORP. For hitters, VORP is the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. For simplicity sake, VORP shows how much more effective a player is over a scrub you can just plug in at anytime. Also known as "Kevin Maas" I listed VORP for each projected member of the starting outfield.I used this, other supporting stats, and general snarky-ness to determine a projected 2010 stat line.

7) Brett Gardner
VORP: 11.4 (Randy Winn -2.5)

Better or worse than last year? Better. He is one of the few on this team with something to prove. I estimate that he will beat out the versatile yet aging Randy Winn for the 3rd starting outfielder job. The primary reason is because of his speed on the base paths. Gardner appeared in 108 games last season, batting .270 with an on-base percentage of .345 and stealing 26 bases in 31 attempts. Certainly serviceable but ground breaking? No. Consistency and confidence should fortify his plate presence and one way to do this is to be less predictable to opposing pitchers. He’s been working on his bunting skills and even just that small surprise factor could help him lead to more total bases, steals and runs.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: Avg-265 HR-9 R-95 RBI- 59 (35 SB)

Secret Vice: Melky Cabrera making kissy faces

8) Curtis Granderson
VORP: 25.8

Better or worse than last year? Worse. After looking at stats comparing Curtis and Johnny Damon, I was surprised to see that Damon was better in nearly every significant category you would want from your #2 batter in the lineup. Granderson’s On Base Percentage and OPS was subpar last year and he didn’t get enough steals to make up for lack of gap power. Although hitting in between A-Rod, Tex and Jeter is good for any player’s stats. If he can cover more of left field on the defensive side of the ball in addition to not looking like a junior varsity softball player when throwing the ball in, it might be a wash in Left Field.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: Avg- .278 HR-26 R- 102 RBI 65

Secret Vice: People who criticize blogging

9) Nick Swisher
VORP: 30.9

Better or worse than last year? Better. Swishers VORP-ness surprised me more than any other Yankee in this preview. That’s one reason why it is a excellent stat because it doesn’t factor in a pointless smegma like “batting average” as much as it does “method acting”. His impact at the plate was bottom of the order pop and a high walk rate. I expect the same amount of walks with around 15% more hits due to some offseason training that addressed his poor balance, which is why he is privy to whiffing. At an age (30) when most players are at their professional peak, he should find a way to put more balls in play and reduce his high strikeout rate.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: Avg- .270 HR-32 R-85 RBI-90

Secret Vice: Gossip Girl

DH) Nick Johnson
VORP: 13.4

Better or worse than last year? Worse. How can a player that only accumulated 104 at bats last year be projected to be worse? Well, that exactly how. Johnson hasn’t played a full season since 2006 and has already tweaked his fragile back in Spring Training. His on-base percentage is great and he is an ideal candidate to bat 2nd in this potent lineup. He will see a lot of strikes this year and I’m not sure if he will end up walking as much as he is used to. The trends don’t make any compelling evidence that this year will prove to be any different.

Projected 2010 Stat Line: Avg- 276 HR-13 R-55 RBI-40

Secret Vice: Lots of sweets